Ontario Real Estate Market New Updates: Insights and Projections

How is the Real Estate Market in Ontario?

The Ontario real estate market continues to evolve, shaped by various factors such as economic trends, interest rates, and government policies. In 2023, the market showcased resilience amid global uncertainties, maintaining a robust demand for properties. As per recent reports from Altrua, the prevailing low-interest rates have played a pivotal role in sustaining the momentum.

Home buyers and sellers are navigating through a dynamic landscape, and understanding the current state of the Ontario real estate market is crucial for making informed decisions. The demand for homes, driven by factors like population growth and urbanization, has led to a competitive environment, impacting property prices and inventory levels.

Navigating the Ontario Real Estate Market

In 2023, the Ontario real estate market showcased notable trends that influenced buying and selling patterns. The demand for residential properties remained strong, driven by a combination of factors. Low interest rates, coupled with a growing population and the appeal of urban living, contributed to a competitive marketplace.

Investors and home buyers found opportunities, but the market's fast pace necessitated agility and informed decision-making. It's crucial to stay updated on the latest Canada interest rate forecasts to gauge the potential impact on mortgage rates and affordability. The Ontario real estate landscape in October 2023 reflects a nuanced picture of declining sales activity, rising property listings, and an evolving pricing trend. Utilizing data from wowa.ca and Infrastructure Ontario's December 2023 Market Update, this comprehensive overview aims to provide an insightful analysis of the current state of the Ontario real estate market.

a. Infrastructure Developments

The December 2023 Market Update from Infrastructure Ontario unveils a robust pipeline of 31 projects in pre-procurement and active procurement, collectively amounting to over $35 billion in estimated design and construction costs. These projects align with the provincial government's commitment to modernize public assets. Additionally, the update includes 20 government-announced projects in the initial planning stages, with scope, timing, and delivery models yet to be determined. It underscores the government's dedication to advancing significant public initiatives despite adversities.

b. Housing Market Overview

1. Average Home Prices
   
   In October 2023, the average home price in Ontario recorded at $855,990, signifying a 3% increase compared to October 2022. This marginal monthly uptick suggests sustained demand for residential properties despite a decline in sales activity.
   
   
   • a. Historical Average Home Prices

Comparing average home prices over recent months and years provides a comprehensive view of market trends. The table below showcases average home prices in Ontario, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA), Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton, Mississauga, Brampton, and London, drawing from data sourced from the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), the London and St. Thomas Association of REALTORS®, and other regional or local realtor boards. For a more detailed perspective on regional pricing, the table below presents the average home prices in major cities across Ontario, along with their respective population and population density statistics.

1. ​Sales Activity

The Ontario housing market experienced a 7.6% decline in home sales compared to the same period in 2022. A total of 11,544 homes were sold during this month, indicating a substantial deviation from historical averages. The sales figures were 36.1% below the five-year average and 36.5% below the ten-year average.

• a. New Home Listings
  
  New home listings surged by 25.9% from October 2022, totaling 31,117. This significant increase contrasts with the decline in sales activity, which fell by 7.6% year-over-year. Consequently, active residential listings reached 50,072 by the end of October 2023, marking a notable 35.8% increase from the previous year.
  
  

• b. Benchmark Home Price and Inventory
  
  The benchmark home price, representing the cost of a "typical" home in Ontario, declined by 2% from the previous month to $879,300, still maintaining a 0.6% increase year-over-year. The months of inventory, indicating the time to deplete the current inventory at the existing sales rate, stood at 4.3 months—higher than the three months recorded last year and surpassing the long-run average of 2.6 months.
  
  
• c. Sales-to-New-Listings Ratio (SNLR)
  
  The sales-to-new-listings ratio (SNLR) in October 2023 was recorded at 37%, classifying the market as a buyer's market with more supply than demand for residential properties in Ontario. A balanced market typically exhibits an SNLR between 40% to 60%, while an SNLR above 60% characterizes a seller's market. The SNLR is increasing in many major cities across Ontario.​
  

​ Price Trends in Major Urban Housing Markets

Looking at Ontario’s major urban housing markets in terms of annual price change for October 2023, some cities are experiencing a slight decline in home prices year-over-year. Hamilton’s housing market is seeing prices 0.1% lower compared to the same month last year, while Brampton home prices are down 0.4% year-over-year. In London, home prices are down 2% year-over-year.

On the other hand, several urban housing markets in Ontario are still witnessing increases in average home prices. The City of Toronto shows a 3% increase, Mississauga displays a 12% rise, Oshawa records a 3% uptick, and Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge experiences a 1% growth. Ottawa leads with a substantial 6% year-over-year increase in home prices.

Forecasting Real Estate Prices for 2024 and Onwards

Looking forward, the forecast for Ontario's real estate market in 2024 and beyond suggests a moderate but steady growth in property prices. Economic stability, employment rates, and potential shifts in interest rates are key factors influencing this forecast. Vigilance and adaptability remain crucial for investors and homeowners as they navigate this evolving landscape.

Economic indicators and housing market analyses suggest a moderate but steady growth in property prices. According to the insights provided by Wow, key factors influencing this forecast include employment rates, inflation, and overall economic stability.

While the market is expected to maintain its upward trajectory, it's essential to consider potential shifts in interest rates and government interventions that impact the real estate landscape. Investors and homeowners should remain vigilant and adapt their strategies accordingly.

Conclusion

The Ontario housing market in October 2023 presents a complex landscape, with a blend of declining sales, increased property listings, and varied pricing trends across urban centers. While some regions, like Toronto and Mississauga, witness continued price growth, others, such as Hamilton and Brampton, experience modest declines. The surplus of active listings and a buyer's market scenario further contribute to the nuanced dynamics in the province's real estate sector.

As the market navigates these challenges, the infusion of substantial infrastructure projects, as outlined by Infrastructure Ontario, adds a layer of optimism to the overall economic landscape. The province's commitment to modernizing public assets can drive future growth and reshape the real estate trajectory in the coming months.​​​​​