Will Canadian Housing Prices Drop in 2025

Canadian housing prices are not expected to see a dramatic drop in 2025. Although some provinces, such as Ontario and British Columbia, may see a small drop, the national trend is toward steady or somewhat rising rates. Price levels are still maintained in part by factors including low housing supply, high immigration, and a paused interest rate environment.

What’s Happening in the Canadian Housing Market?

The Canadian housing market is at a pivotal moment.
 Home sales are slowing down, supply is only modestly increasing, and global trade disturbances—particularly U.S. tariffs—are beginning to erode confidence. Does this mean, though, that house prices will decline?

Here's what buyers and investors investigating Canadian housing trends, bungalows for sale, or commercial real estate should know.

National Housing Trends: March 2025 Snapshot

Let’s break down the latest housing stats from March 2025:

While Canadian real estate activity is cooling, a full-blown crash is not expected. According to CREA, the current trend mirrors the uncertainty of the 2008 financial crisis but is driven largely by external trade and policy shifts, not a housing bubble.

CREA Revises 2025 Housing Forecast

Initially, 2025 was projected to bring an energetic spring market. However, ongoing U.S. tariffs and global economic tensions have triggered caution across the Canadian Housing Forecast.

CREA’s Updated Forecast Highlights:

• Home Sales: Flat growth—same level expected in 2025 as in 2024.

• Sales Growth Regions: Newfoundland & Labrador, Quebec, P.E.I. 

• Declining Sales Regions: Ontario and B.C.

• Price Trends:

• Price Increase: Alberta, New Brunswick, Newfoundland
  

• Price Decline: Ontario and B.C.
  

• National Price Movement: ↓ 0.3%

Despite softening in some areas, many regions are still experiencing strong price support due to low inventory and high buyer interest.

Regional Variations: Where Prices Are Headed

The Canadian housing market is highly regional. Here’s a quick view:

For those searching for commercial real estate for sale  in rising markets like Alberta or affordable bungalows for sale in New Brunswick, 2025 may be a good year to invest.

Why Aren’t Prices Dropping Dramatically?

Despite weakening sales numbers, housing prices remain resilient due to several key factors:

1. High Demand

Immigration and population growth continue to drive demand. Canada plans to welcome over 400,000 newcomers annually, and many of them will need housing—especially in major cities.

2. Low Inventory

Although listings rose 3% in March, housing stock remains low compared to long-term averages. A sales-to-new-listings ratio of 45.9% shows we’re edging toward a buyer’s market, but not quite there yet.

3. Interest Rate Pause

After seven straight cuts, the Bank of Canada paused its rate at 2.75% in April. Rates are significantly down from April 2024’s 5%, giving buyers more breathing room and stabilizing prices.

What Could Still Shift the Market?

U.S. Tariffs and Economic Fallout

The U.S. tariff policies are creating unpredictability. The Bank of Canada presented two scenarios in its April MPR:

• Scenario 1 (High Uncertainty, Limited Tariffs): Temporary GDP weakness, inflation stays near 2%.
  

• Scenario 2 (Prolonged Trade War): Recession in 2025, inflation >3% in 2026. 

Should the second scenario come to pass, Canadian housing could see steeper price corrections. But for now, policymakers remain cautious.

What Buyers and Sellers Should Do

Whether you're exploring real estate investment, shopping for bungalows for sale, or checking out commercial real estate listings, here are some tips:

• Buyers: Look to provinces with rising markets and competitive pricing, like Alberta or New Brunswick. Paused rates make this a rare window for affordability.
  

• Sellers: Understand your local market conditions—some areas are holding value better than others. Work with a realtor who knows the regional dynamics.
  

Final Thoughts

The Canadian housing market in 2025 is not on the verge of a crash, but it's not in a boom either. The market consists of many moving components; some provinces are seeing minor declines while others are seeing expansion.

Canadian real estate is still a good investment given interest rates on hold, steady immigration, and rather low inventory. Whether you are looking at commercial real estate for sale or your next house, knowing your local market will help you to make wise decisions in 2025.

FAQs

Q1: Will housing prices in Canada drop in 2025?

A1: Slightly, especially in Ontario and B.C., but other regions like Alberta and Newfoundland may see price increases.

Q2: Why are home sales falling in Canada?

A2: Economic uncertainty, U.S. tariffs, and affordability concerns are lowering buyer activity across many provinces.

Q3: Is it a good time to buy a home in Canada?

A3: Yes, especially with paused interest rates and increased inventory offering better buyer leverage.

Q4: Which provinces have rising home prices?

A4: Alberta, New Brunswick, and Newfoundland are projected to see the most growth in 2025.

Q5: What’s the average home price in Canada now?

A5: As of March 2025, it’s $678,331—down 3.7% compared to last year.